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Group F of the World Cup 2014 kicks off on June 15th, with the two favourites Argentina and Bosnia and Herzegovina squaring off. The next day, on June 16th 2014, we will see Iran vs Nigeria in what is basically the race to see who doesn’t finish last in the group.
I can’t see either team making a dent in the group at all. In every computer simulation we did, Argentina and Bosnia were the two top teams every time. Not once did they even come close to an upset.
Iran got here by winning Group A in the AFC Fourth Round, beating the likes of South Korea, Uzbekistan, Qatar and Lebanon to top their group by 2 points. Nigeria were CAF Third Round winners – beating Ethiopia 2-1 and 2-0 in the knockout stage.
Nigeria do have some quality players while Iran….well, don’t – but Nigeria aren’t the best team for goals either, so this has the potential to be a rather dour affair.
Nigeria vs Iran Betting Odds:
Nigeria To Win: 5/4
Draw: 11/5
Iran To Win: 11/4
Over 2.5 Goals: 17/10
Under 2.5 Goals: 4/9
The best odds for Iran vs Nigeria.
Iran vs Nigeria Betting Tips:
The first thing that stands out for us is the Under 2.5 goals market. Both teams rank at 88% under 2.5 goals which means despite the 4/9 odds this is still a play. Even against weaker opposition such as Iran, the stats for Nigeria don’t go up too much which makes it look very likely that this will be a quiet game.
Hell – even Under 1.5 goals might be worth it. You can get that at 11/8 odds.
For who is going to win the game – Nigeria do have the strength and ability to create some goals, and we can see them getting at least one although leaving it for the second half.
So we recommend if you are looking to bet on who will win the match, to go with Nigeria to win the game.
Bet Under 2/5 goals and/or Nigeria to beat Iran.
Nigeria vs Iran Betting Props:
As you can tell above – our computer simulations plus the statistics don’t suggest this game is going to be a goalsy affair.
On top of that with teams usually starting cautious when the World Cup starts, we like a very quiet first half.
Therefore we recommend going with the bet of 0-0 end of 1st half at 6/5 odds. A decent price actually, considering the statistics.
However on top of that, we can’t resist the half-time/full-time correct score option. You can bet the Draw 0-0/Nigeria 1-0 at 7/1 odds. What that means is at half-time, the score must be 0-0 while Nigeria must end up winning the game by scoring a goal in the 2nd half.
Based on our simulations, the true odds of this happening are about 3/1. Nigeria score in the last 10 minutes of 88% of their matches with their average first goal time of 69 minutes – so a late one for that is great.
Bet on the draw 0-0 at half-time, and Nigeria 1-0 full time for 7/1 odds – tremendous value there.
